In the December WASDE report, the USDA increased the forecast of 2013-14 marketing year exports of U.S. soybeans by 25 million bushels, to a total of 1.475 billion bushels. 

That forecast is 155 million bushels larger than exports of last year and only 26 million bushels smaller than the record exports during the 2010-11 marketing year.

 

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Large U.S. exports are expected this year even with record large production in South America. 

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service estimated the size of the 2013 crop in South America (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Bolivia, and Uruguay) at 5.377 billion bushels and forecasts the 2014 crop at 5.766 billion bushels. The projected size of the 2014 crop is 1.515 billion bushels larger than the drought-reduced crop of 2012.

Compared to production this year, production in 2014 is expected to be 220 million bushels larger in Brazil and 190 million bushels larger in Argentina. Larger crop expectations reflect increased acreage (particularly in Brazil) and expectations of slightly higher yields (particularly in Argentina).   

Production is expected to be down slightly in Paraguay and Bolivia. The actual size of those crops will not be known for several months, but current weather conditions are generally favorable and some anticipate that the Brazilian crop in particular will be larger than the current forecast.