In Tuesday’s USDA Supply & Demand Report for corn, no adjustments for the current marketing year of 2012/13 U.S. supply and demand numbers were made.
The trade was expecting on the average a 16 million bushel increase in ending stocks.
It is somewhat expected that harvested acreage will be reduced in the Jan. 11, 2013 report. However, there is a good possibility that reductions in supplies will be met and may be surpassed by reduction in usage with higher ending stocks the result.
For now, the December numbers are what are available and since the trade was expecting an increase in stocks, no change might be considered bullish.
The 2012/13 ending stocks were projected at 647 million bushels with a season average price as compared to last month down 15 cents on the lower end and down 25 cents on the top side in a range from $6.80 to $8 a bushel.
The stocks to use ratio is unchanged at 5.8 percent.
Global stocks are projected at 4.630 billion bushels, 11.4 million bushels lower than last month.
Foreign production was raised 370 million bushels with increases in China and Canada and reductions in Argentina and the Ukraine.
China’s consumption accounted for all of its increase.
The global stocks to use ratio is 13.6 percent, up 0.2 percent from last month.
March corn closed down 2 cents Tuesday at $7.28 a bushel with support at $7.19 and resistance at $7.41 with a strong sell bias.
I would be priced out of 2012 corn at this time. However, for producers with corn in storage I would not store un-priced or without a floor price in place.
A March $7.30 Put costs 30 cents and would set a $7 futures floor.
September 2013 corn closed at $6.48 ¾, down 6 ¾ cents with support at $6.44 and resistance at $6.64 with a strong sell bias.
I am currently priced 10 percent for 2013 production and will look for additional opportunities to price more.
Over the past 31 years the average difference between the December projection for U.S. ending stocks and the final estimate has been 296 million bushels with 18 years below the final estimate and 13 years above.
The next USDA Supply & Demand report will be released Jan. 11, 2013.