What is in this article?:
- This may be the year to sell more wheat at harvest
- Tight corn stocks influencing market
• You may want to sell 50 percent at harvest and the remainder in one-fourth increments between August and January.
Tight corn stocks influencing market
Market information indicates that tight corn stocks resulted in wheat prices being 80 cents to $1 above what they would have been with an adequate supply of corn. With a predicted 14 billion bushel crop and with 2013/14 U.S. corn ending stocks predicted to increase from 759 million bushels to 2.0 billion bushels, feed demand for wheat will decline.
The result will be relatively lower wheat prices. Rain-delayed corn planting will delay the corn harvest. It may be September before the wheat price impact from tight corn stocks will completely disappear.
World wheat ending stocks for the 2013/14 wheat marketing year are projected to increase 3.4 percent and remain below the five-year average. Wheat ending stocks for the U.S. are projected to decline about 8 percent and remain below average.
Below-average wheat stocks should result in above-average wheat prices. The five-year average annual Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle wheat price is about $6.37. Wheat prices can decline from the current $7.25 and still be above average.
There is no market indication on which direction wheat prices will go. What the market does know is that prices will change and that the change can be dramatic. What each producer must decide is which will hurt worse: “Sell now and not have the opportunity to receive a higher price,” or “Not sell now and have to receive a lower price.”
Dollar cost averaging (selling across time) tends to work relatively well. But when prices are above average the odds favor selling a higher percentage than normal.