What is in this article?:
- This may be the year to sell more wheat at harvest
- Tight corn stocks influencing market
• You may want to sell 50 percent at harvest and the remainder in one-fourth increments between August and January.
If your marketing strategy has been to sell wheat in one-third increments between harvest and Jan. 1, this may be the year to sell a higher percentage at harvest.
You may want to sell 50 percent at harvest and the remainder in one-fourth increments between August and January.
Price movements during the last five years have humbled most market analysts and prognosticators. At times, price movements have appeared random and contrary to current supply and demand conditions. Many market analysts have switched from predicting prices to managing price risk.
The current U.S. and foreign wheat supply situations are of adequate, but below average supply and relatively strong demand. The strong demand is partially the result of extremely short supply of the feed grains. Above average wheat demand is from both the food market and the feed market.
Below-average supply and above-average demand has resulted in above average prices. At this writing, Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle wheat prices are in the $7.15 to $7.35 range. The KCBT July contract wheat price is about $7.38.
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle June wheat prices for the years 2008 through 2012 averaged $6.40. The average June prices have ranged from a high in 2008 of $7.93 to a low of $3.75 in 2010. The average June price in 2012 was $6.48. Since June 2008, wheat prices in June have ranged from a low of $3.39 to a high of $9.05.
Each June from 2008 through 2012, the difference between the high price for the month and the low price for the month was calculated. The average low to high difference (range) for the five Junes was $1.35. The largest June price difference was in June 2011 at $1.97 and the smallest price difference was 52 cents in June 2010.
A cash price that is 90 cents above the five-year average supports selling a larger than normal percentage of wheat at harvest.