• Trading opened up at the CME Group at 7:20 a.m. in anticipation of the 7:30 a.m. report release.
• There were not a lot of surprises in the report, so this probably was a good day for it to start.
In a friendly USDA report, ending stocks for 2011/12 were lowered 35 million bushels to 175 million bushels compared to the average trade guess of 197 million bushels. Crush was increased 15 million bushels while exports were raised 20 million bushels.
The season average price for 2011/12 was lowered 5 cents to $12.30 a bushel.
Stocks to use ratio was projected at 5.6 percent, down from 6.8 percent last month.
World ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected to increase slightly to 1.961 billion bushels, 5 million bushels more than the May estimate.
In the new crop year, ending stocks are projected at 140 million bushels, 5 million bushels less than in May and about expected by the trade.
As with the other crops, acreage and yields will not be adjusted until the July 11 report. It is anticipated that acreage will increase based on the June 30 Acreage report.
Crush was lowered 10 million bushels from the May report, while exports were lowered 20 million bushels mainly on the prospects of lower supplies.
The season average price is unchanged and is estimated to range from $12.00 to $14.00 a bushel.
Global new crop stocks are projected to increase slightly 17 million bushels to 2.151 billion bushels.
November soybeans closed at $13.37, up 5 ¾ cents per bushel. Technical analysis has a buy bias with support at $13.18 and resistance at $13.49 a bushel.
I am currently priced at 50 percent for the 2012 crop.
From a price risk management standpoint, a $13.40 Put would cost 77 cents and set a $12.63 futures floor.
Over the past 31 years the average difference between the June projection for U.S. ending stocks and the final estimate has been 107 million bushels with 9 years below the final estimate and 22 years above.
The next USDA Supply & Demand report will be released July 11, 2012.