What is in this article?:
- Corn market looking for 2013 production numbers
- Weekly export projections
• The corn market is expecting a crop large enough to meet consumption needs without the need for price rationing.
Weekly export projections
“The USDA’s weekly report of export inspections indicated shipments of 56 million bushels for the month. It appears that marketing-year exports may have been near 730 million bushels,” Good said.
Feed and residual use of corn during the 2012-13 marketing year was projected at 4.45 billion bushels. Use during the first three quarters of the year was estimated at 4.068 billion bushels.
“To reach the marketing-year projection, fourth-quarter consumption would have been 382 million bushels,” Good said.
“That compares to 451 million bushels consumed during the summer quarter of 2011 and 322 million bushels consumed last summer. Consumption of old-crop corn last summer was likely reduced by the exceptionally large amount of new-crop corn harvested before Sept. 1(estimated at 1.2 billion bushels). Some of that crop was likely consumed during the final quarter of the 2012-13 marketing year, reducing the consumption of old-crop corn.
“That reduced consumption would have been reflected in a smaller estimate of feed and residual use of old-crop corn,” Good said.
“Based on the 10 states reporting harvest progress in last week’s USDA weekly Crop Progress report, about 460 million bushels of corn were likely harvested as of Sept. 1 this year. That early harvest likely reduced consumption of old-crop corn in August, but the reduction may have been less than last year.
“ In addition, feed and residual use of wheat during the summer quarter last year was estimated at a very large 429 million bushels. It is unlikely that use exceeded that level in 2013. The number of cattle in feedlots during the summer of 2013 was smaller than during the summer of 2012, but broiler production was larger this summer than last summer.
“Taken together, the available information points to feed and residual use of corn in excess of 382 million bushels during the summer quarter of 2013,” Good said.
Domestic corn consumption for food and industrial products other than ethanol is relatively constant from year to year and even quarter to quarter, according to Good.
“Use during the summer quarter of 2013 was likely very near the 357 million bushels projected by the USDA. Finally, corn imports totaled just over 27 million bushels in June and July. Imports for the summer quarter were likely near the 42 million bushels projected in the USDA’s August WASDE report.
“Calculations for forming an expectation about the magnitude of stocks of old-crop corn on Sept. 1 are based on the magnitude of stocks on June 1, the magnitude of imports during the quarter, and the magnitude of likely consumption during the quarter,” Good said.
“That process this year leads to an expectation that is 50 to 80 million bushels less than the USDA’s most recent projection of 719 million bushels. The estimate of corn inventories revealed in the USDA’s September Grain Stocks report, however, is not always close to the ‘calculated’ value,” he said.
The estimate of Sept.1, 2013, stocks of old-crop corn will be released on Sept. 30.
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