What is in this article?:
- Corn led prices up, wheat leading prices down
- Is price rally complete?
• World and U.S. corn stocks are tight, and corn prices must stay relatively high to ration corn supplies.
• Corn prices lead wheat prices higher and wheat prices have led corn prices lower.
• Between June 12 and August 2, U.S. wheat production estimates have changed very little.
Is price rally complete?
Technical signals may indicate that the price rally is complete. At the least, the price uptrend has stopped to give market analysts the opportunity to reevaluate the market situation.
The market has a tendency to overreact to significant changes in supply and demand situations. Possibly, the market has driven corn prices and thus wheat prices too high. As the corn harvest increases in intensity, the yield and production information will either support current prices or prices will decline.
If corn prices go higher, wheat prices will follow kicking and screaming. For wheat prices to increase without corn’s lead, world wheat production estimates must be lowered.
Western Australia is experiencing dry wheat growing conditions. Lower production in Russia and the Ukraine may result is limited exports from these countries.
Wheat stocks are adequate, but any decline in available wheat should result in higher wheat prices.
The KCBT September wheat contract price has support at $8.56 and then about $8. If the September contract price trades below $8.56 for two days, the target price will be $8. Price resistance exists at about $9.42. To continue the uptrend, the September contract price must close above $9.42. Closes above $9.42 imply a target price of $10.
The wheat marketing-year price trend tends to be set in late August and early September.
In August, some producers make wheat sales decisions based on their ability to sleep. If they can’t sleep because they are worrying about lower prices, they sell some wheat. If they can’t sleep because they are worried about higher prices, they don’t sell wheat.
August is the month to sit back and – well, August may be the month just to not listen to market news.