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• The corn crop is now forecast at 12.664 billion bushels, 496 million smaller than the September forecast and 446 million smaller than the 2009 harvest. Although the estimate of harvested acreage was increased by 258,000 acres, the forecast yield was lowered by 6.7 bushels, to 155.8 bushels.
• The 2010 soybean crop is now forecast at 3.408 billion bushels, 75 million smaller than the September forecast, but 49 million larger than the 2009 crop.
• Corn and soybean prices will now be influenced by expectations about the November production forecasts and the revealed rate of consumption. Chatter about acreage needs in 2011 has already begun, but it is likely premature.
Domestic soybean crush
For soybeans, the forecast of the size of the domestic crush during the current year was increased by 15 million bushels and the forecast of exports was increased by 35 million bushels, he said.
“At 1.52 billion bushels, exports are expected to be 22 million bushels larger than in the previous year. While the USDA increased the projected size of the 2011 Brazilian harvest by 73 million bushels, South American production is still expected to be 276 million bushels smaller than the record harvest of 2010. In addition, China is expected to import 2.02 billion bushels of soybeans from all sources during the current marketing year, up from 1.855 billion last year,” he said.
Stocks of U.S. soybeans at the end of the 2010-11 marketing year are projected at 265 million bushels. That is a comfortable level of stocks, but it is 85 million less than last month’s projection. The 2010-11 marketing year average farm price is projected in a range of $10 to $11.50 so the record of $10.10 during the 2007-08 marketing year may be exceeded, he said.
“Corn and soybean prices will now be influenced by expectations about the November production forecasts and the revealed rate of consumption. Chatter about acreage needs in 2011 has already begun, but it is likely premature,” he said.
The actual rate of consumption over the next six months and the size of the South American crops will have significant impacts on U.S. acreage needs in 2011. Early thinking is that more corn acres will be needed in 2011. The degree of acreage competition for spring planted crops will be influenced by winter wheat seeding decisions to be revealed in early January, he said.