What is in this article?:
- Corn can be profitable in Virginia and Carolinas in 2014
- Making corn profitable at $2.80 per bushel
- North Carolina growers shattered an all-time corn yield record in 2013 with 142 bushels per acre.
- Colder-than-normal weather is expected in the upper Southeast through March.
- Lower prices probably will cause a corn acreage decrease in 2014.
NORTH CAROLINA GROWERS BROKE an all-time corn yield record in 2013. They might need to break it again in 2014 to keep corn profitable.
Making corn profitable at $2.80 per bushel
For the past few years, Heiniger has conducted research to look at return on investment of various corn inputs. By increasing seeding rates and using drought-tolerant seed, using a starter fertilizer, applying a fungicide at the V-5 growth stage and a few other tweaks to a conventional corn program, he produces an average of 220 bushels per acre across several tests conducted throughout the state.
He notes that a corn yield of 220 bushels per acre under this production scenario would only require a corn price of $2.80 a bushel to break even.
Growers can reduce risks on some land that is prone to drought by using drought-tolerant seed. These hybrids aren’t typically among the higher-yielding varieties, which under some weather scenarios can actually increase risk.
Seed rate, he says, is a make or break decision across most of the corn-producing areas of North Carolina. On $270 a bag corn seed, upping the seeding rate from 33,000 to 43,000 per acre requires a 7.5 bushel per acre yield increase, at $5 per bushel prices, to break even.
In virtually all of the North Carolina test sites, increasing seeding rate paid off last year, Heiniger notes. “I’m confident, on most land, I can get enough yield increase from increased seeding rates to make it profitably,’ he says.
Starter fertilizer can reduce risks and was successful in several cases in producing a positive return on investment. Using 5 gallons of 3-18-18 fertilizer, applied in a 2X2 band, the N.C. State researcher says a grower will need 5.5 bushels per acre to break even.
Using seed treatments paid off in in 24 of 48 test sites in the North Carolina tests. Likewise, using a fungicide on corn at the V-5 stage proved beneficial in 18 of 48 test sites. Breakeven for fungicide use was 3.1 bushels per acre, he notes.
“Our research with fungicides stresses the importance of choosing hybrids wisely to coincide with other production choices, because we got different results across the state, using different varieties,” Heiniger concludes.
Heiniger says the best is yet to come for corn production in the region.
“Last year we had too much rain statewide, and we had record rainfall in some areas of the state that historically produce the highest corn yields,” he stresses.
“Perhaps more damaging than the excessive rainfall, we had prolonged periods of cool, cloudy weather that restricted light interception and reduce the plant’s ability to store energy. None of these things are typically conducive to high corn yields,” Heiniger said.
The N.C. State corn expert is also widely followed for his tracking of global weather patterns and often spot-on predictions of weather trends for North Carolina.
He says the region will likely remain in a neutral pattern, between a La Nina and an El Nino, which means similar weather this growing season to last growing season.
“I expect colder-than-normal weather from January through March. I think we will have a break in April and May—time to get corn planted,” he said. “The rain will likely return in April and May, but hopefully not in 100-year record totals like we got in some parts of the region last year. Then, if this pattern holds, we will likely see more traditional heat and dry weather in July and August.”