What is in this article?:
- 2012 corn hybrids compared to those planted during 1988 drought
- Projected trend line yields
• Emerson Nafziger, a professor of crop sciences at the University of Illinois, said that as the drought worsened over the past weeks, he was regularly asked how this year’s yields are likely to be affected and how they will compare with the yields after the 1988 drought.
Projected trend line yields
To look at how much yield was lost to drought each year, Nafziger projected trend line yields for each of the drought years based on yields over the 30 previous years.
The expected yield (trend line) for 1988 was 129 bushels per acre, and the actual yield that year was 73, so the loss was 56 bushels per acre. In 2012, the expected yield was 173 bushels per acre, and the estimated yield is 116, so the projected loss is 57 bushels per acre.
The 1988 yield represents a loss of 44 percent of expected yield, while in 2012, with higher yield expected, the percentage loss is only 33 percent. “In relative terms, the 2012 crop lost less yield than the 1988 crop, but in absolute terms, losses were almost identical for the two years,” said Nafziger.
It is clear that drought continues to cause serious yield loss, even with today’s faster-growing, higher-yielding hybrids.
“We don’t yet know if hybrids that have been improved specifically for drought tolerance will be less affected by drought this year, but it’s unlikely that any hybrid will produce high yields in areas and soils where most well-managed fields yield little or nothing,” said Nafziger.
Nafziger advises producers to take note of any hybrids that do relatively — and consistently — better than other hybrids under dry conditions, but cautions against over-reliance on data from this year.
“As we don’t know what next year will bring, we also need to include in our comparisons relative hybrid performance under better conditions, even if those come from last year or from 50 or 100 miles away,” he said.
“In other words, data from drought-affected comparisons predict best for drought conditions,” he said. “Because we have no reason to expect drought in 2013, we can keep this year’s results in the mix, but we should rely more on data from better-yielding trials to choose hybrids.”