What is in this article?:
• Cotton stocks have risen considerably over the last 2 years as a result of recent record cotton prices that encouraged increased production but reduced demand.
China’s mill use
China’s expected mill use decline will reduce its share of 2012/13 global cotton consumption to 34 percent, the lowest in nearly a decade.
The expected mill use decline in China, however, is more than offset by consumption increases in other countries, including Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Thailand, Turkey, and Vietnam.
India and Pakistan are forecast to consume 22.0 million bales and 11.5 million bales, respectively, up 10 percent and 14 percent from a year earlier. Bangladesh and Turkey are expected to use 3.6 million bales and 6.0 million bales, respectively, in 2012/13, up 13 percent and 7 percent from the preceding year.
India, Pakistan, and Turkey will account for 21 percent, 11 percent, and 6 percent of global 2012/13 cotton consumption, respectively.
World 2012/13 cotton imports are forecast at 36.5 million bales, down 18 percent from a year ago largely due to an expected sharp decline in China’s 2012/13 cotton imports.
China — the leading global importer of the fiber—is forecast to import 11.0 million bales in 2012/13, down 55 percent from a year ago. China’s expected cotton import decline — due to lower expected domestic mill use and Government import and reserve policies — will reduce the country’s share of 2012/13 global trade to 30 percent, compared with 55 percent in the previous year.
The forecast decline in China’s 2012/13 imports is expected to be partially offset by other major importers, including Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Turkey.
Bangladesh and Indonesia are forecast to import 3.6 million bales and nearly 2.3 million bales, respectively, in 2012/13, an increase of 14 percent each from the preceding year. Pakistan and Turkey are forecast to import 2.4 million bales and nearly 3.5 million bales in 2012/13, up 140 percent and 45 percent, respectively, from the previous year.
Exports for Australia and Brazil are projected to decline 5 percent and 17 percent, respectively, from a year earlier to 4.4 million bales and 4.0 million bales.
India’s exports are forecast at 3.5 million bales in 2012/13, down 67 percent from the preceding year, and dropping the country’s share of world exports from 23 percent in 2011/12 to less than 10 percent in 2012/13.
The United States is expected to export 11.6 million bales in 2012/13, marginally below last season.