Unless world demand is weaker than currently projected, additional crop losses there could propel United States exports above the current forecast and would be supportive for United States exports in the first quarter of the 2012-13 marketing year.

For the current year, the USDA expects United States exports to be 15 percent less than the record exports of a year ago. To date, shipments plus outstanding sales are 30 percent less than those of a year ago.

Last year, export activity was unusually strong in the first half of the year and very weak in the last half. The margin of difference between exports this year and last year will narrow as the year progresses.

A smaller South American crop might also buoy United States soybean meal exports, and therefore the domestic crush, above the current projection. “It seems likely, then, that marketing-year-ending stocks of United States soybeans will be somewhat less than the current projection of 275 million bushels,” Good said.

The expectation for fewer acres of soybeans in the United States this year stems from the 1.3-million-acre increase in winter wheat seedings and the expected two- to three-million acre increase in corn plantings.

However, with 1.6 million acres released from the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) last September, prospects for up to a million fewer acres of cotton, and the likelihood of at least four to five million fewer prevented planted acres in 2012 than in 2011, there should be ample opportunity for more acres of corn, wheat, and soybeans this year.

The battle for acreage may be less intense than advertised. In addition, the recent change in the relationship between new-crop corn and soybean prices has reduced the potential profit advantage of a corn-after-corn rotation over a soybean-after-corn rotation.

According to Good, “Average yields and projected costs still favor corn in those areas where corn-after-corn is common, but the margin has narrowed substantially since the first of the year and is still narrowing.”

The average price of December 2012 corn futures and November 2012 soybean futures during February establish the spring price guarantee for crop revenue insurance products and may have some acreage implications.

March and November 2012 soybean futures have moved to the highest level since late October 2011.

“Ongoing concerns about the South American crop should provide additional support, particularly if United States export activity remains strong. New crop prices may also strengthen due to concerns about reduced soybean acreage in the United States, but those concerns may not be well founded.

“A rebound in March and November futures might be limited to near the $13.00 area for now,” said Good.