Soybean prices have traded in a wide range over the past two months, but fundamental developments have been less dramatic than in the wheat and corn markets.
The second report, the Sept. 30 Grain Stocks report, will reveal the level of old-crop soybean stocks on Sept. 1, the beginning of the 2010-11 marketing year.
“Based on available data, it appears soybean exports during the 2009-10 marketing year that ended on Aug. 31 exceeded the USDA projection of 1.47 billion bushels,” he said.
Cumulative export inspections through Aug. 31 were reported at 1.46 billion bushels. From September 2009 through June 2010, cumulative exports as estimated by the Census Bureau exceeded inspections by 44 million bushels.
“If that margin continued through August, marketing-year exports would have totaled 1.504 billion bushels,” he said.
In contrast, the 2009-10 marketing year domestic crush may fall just short of the USDA projection of 1.75 billion bushels. “The crush during August needed to be 7 million bushels larger than during August 2009 to reach that projection. Monthly crush was below year-ago levels from April through June and exceeded the year-ago crush in July by only 300,000 bushels,” he noted.
On the surface, it appears the inventory of soybeans on Sept. 1, 2010, may have been smaller than the projection of 160 million bushels. However, the September stocks report has a reputation for containing some surprises and on occasion has resulted in a revision in the estimated size of the previous harvest, he noted.