For soybeans, March 1 stocks were estimated at 999 million bushels and March-May imports were likely near 10 million bushels, resulting in total supplies of about 1.009 billion bushels. 

Export inspections through May totaled 1.268 billion bushels and Census Bureau estimates through April exceeded inspections by 3 million bushels. With exports of 1.15 billion bushels in the first half of the year, March-May exports are estimated at 121 million bushels. 

The National Oilseed Processors Association estimated the domestic soybean crush by its members during March-May to be 7.5 percent less than during the same quarter last year.  The total crush for the quarter is estimated at 400 million bushels. With seed, feed, and residual use of 50 million bushels, total consumption during the quarter would have been near 571 million bushels, leaving June 1 stocks at 438 million bushels.

Expectations for planted and harvested acreage estimates will be based on the March report of planting intentions of 97.282 million acres for corn and 77.126 million acres for soybeans and likely changes from intentions based on the very late planting season. 

Check current soybean futures prices

Since the survey for the estimates was conducted in the first half of June, estimates may still reflect intentions in some cases. It is difficult to form acreage expectations so a wide range of guesses is likely.  

Based on anecdotal reports, a few non-random private surveys, and historical evidence we would expect planted acreage of corn to be 2.5 to 3 million less than March intentions and soybean acreage to be as much as one million acres more than intentions.

The price reaction to the USDA reports will depend on the differences between expected and actual estimates. The estimates for corn hold the most potential for surprises.

 

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