A continuation of that pace would result in exports falling short of the USDA projection by about 43 million bushels.

“It now appears total consumption of soybeans during the current marketing year will result in year ending stocks above the current USDA projection of 200 million bushels,” Good said. “Those stocks, however, will not be known until the release of the USDA Grain Stocks report on Sept. 30.”

The Census Bureau’s cumulative marketing year corn export estimates through May 2011 exceeded USDA export inspection estimates by about 36 million bushels. Assuming that difference is maintained through August, the Illinois number cruncher said cumulative export inspections of 1.63 billion bushels through July 28 means that exports in August need to total 209 million bushels, or 43 million per week, to reach the USDA forecast of 1.875 billion bushels.  

Unshipped sales as of July 21 were reported at 264 million bushels, but weekly export inspections have averaged only 36 million bushels per week over the past 8 weeks.

“A continuation of that pace would leave exports about 36 million bushels short of the USDA projection,” Good said.

Weekly ethanol production continues to exceed the levels of last year, but the pace of production has slowed. Production in the March to May quarter exceeded that of a year ago by 5.9 percent, production in June was up 4.7 percent, and production in July was up only 1.8 percent.

To reach the USDA’s projection of 5.05 billion bushels of corn used for ethanol production during the current marketing year, ethanol production in August needs to exceed that of last year by 10.5 percent.

Feed and residual use of corn during the June to August quarter will remain a mystery until the release of the Sept. 1, 2011 Grain Stocks report on Sept.r 30.  

By most accounts, a large amount of wheat has been or will be substituted for corn this summer due to the low price of wheat relative to corn.

The slowdown in corn consumption and prospects for larger year-end inventories has resulted in some weakness in price levels, basis, and the September-December futures spread.  

In mid-June, Darrel Goods says September 2011 futures were still more than $.45 higher than December futures.  

December futures are now about $.03 higher than September futures. A rapidly maturing crop and prospects for more corn harvested in September has contributed to the weakness in September futures.  

However, the heat that has pushed the maturity of the crop also raises concerns about yield losses, particularly in those areas that received less than normal precipitation in July.

“While the magnitude of year ending stocks will influence the supply of corn and soybeans for the 2011-12 marketing year, that impact will be dwarfed by the size of the 2011 crops,” Good said.  

“The extreme variability in planting date and weather conditions to date make it difficult to anticipate crop size.  

Increasingly, yield expectations are falling below projections in the USDA’s July WASDE report.”

The USDA’s first survey-based production forecasts will be released on Aug. 11.