Importing countries are certainly taking a liking to current U.S. soybean prices, a fact reflected in USDA’s Sept. 11 World Supply and Demand Estimate forecasting record U.S. exports this marketing year.
According to USDA, increased supplies and lower projected prices will lead to a 15 million bushel increase in U.S. soybean exports to a record 1.28 billion bushels. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 220 million bushels, up 10 million from last month.
The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2009-10 is projected at $8.10 to $10.10 per bushel, down 30 cents on both ends of the range from last month. Global soybean production is projected at a record 243.9 million tons, up 1.9 million tons.
Total U.S. corn use for 2009-10 is projected at a record 13 billion bushels, up 150 million bushels from last month and 980 million bushels higher than in 2008-09. Feed and residual use was raised 50 million bushels based on higher expected production. Exports were raised 100 million bushels while ending stocks were projected 14 million bushels higher. The 2009-10 marketing-year average farm price is projected lower at $3.05 to $3.65 per bushel, compared with $3.10 to $3.90 per bushel last month.
Sorghum production was forecast 9 million bushels higher than the previous month while beginning stocks were projected 10 million bushels lower based an increase in 2008-09 exports. Projected 2009-10 farm prices for sorghum, barley, and oats are all lowered this month reflecting larger corn supplies and weaker corn prices.
Cotton exports were raised slightly from last month, a result of decreased foreign competition from India. U.S. ending stocks are estimated at 5.6 million bales, unchanged from last month. The forecast range for the marketing-year average price received by producers is 49 to 59 cents per pound.
World cotton production was reduced slightly due primarily to problems with the crop in India. World consumption is forecast at 112.7 million bales, while forecast world ending stocks were reduced 2 percent.
The 2009-10 marketing-year average farm price for wheat is projected at $4.70 to $5.50 per bushel, down 20 cents on the high end of the range.
Global wheat supplies for 2009-10 are projected 3.9 million tons higher than last month due to increases in foreign production. Global consumption is raised 900,000 tons.
Rice beginning stocks for 2009-10 were raised 7.8 million hundredweight from last month to 30.4 million hundredweight. Domestic and residual use for 2009-10 was lowered 2.5 million hundredweight to 129.5 million while exports were projected at 96 million hundredweight, down 3 million hundredweight from last month. Long-grain exports were lowered 4 million hundredweight to 67 million, and combined medium- and short-grain exports were raised 1 million hundredweight to 29 million. Ending stocks for 2009-10 are projected at 44.6 million hundredweight, up 20.7 million from last month.
USDA projected the long-grain season-average farm price range at $12.90 to $13.90 per hundredweight, up 90 cents per hundredweight on both ends of the range. The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range was projected at $16.25 to $17.25 per hundredweight, down $3.25 per hundredweight on both ends of the range.
World rice production is projected at 433.5 million tons, while global ending stocks for 2009-10 are projected at 84.9 million tons, up 800,000 million from last month, but down 4.5 million from 2008-09.