Corn and soybeans were up; wheat was down the week of Feb. 24. Soybeans broke through the $14 barrier. Soybean exports have been fantastically strong and it seems less and less likely that we will see any significant cancellations of soybean commitments.
Recently, new export commitments have diminished however, shipments remained very strong. That being said, South American production will eventually make it to the export market and when it does prices will surely be pulled lower. Due to the lack of cancelations we could see a domestic shortage.
Consider if exports are 75 million bushels greater than the USDA current projections for the 2013-14 marketing year, holding all else constant, that leaves 75 million bushels in ending stocks. This is a very tight ending stocks number.
For corn in the 2014/15 marketing year, the USDA projects production up 60 million bushels to 13.985 billion bushels. This is despite a 3.1 million acre drop in estimated harvest acreage. The estimated average yield is very robust at 165.3 bu/acre. Use is estimated at 13.380 billion bushels with small increases in domestic use and a reduction of 50 million bushels in exports. Carry over is estimated to be 2.111 billion bushels for the next marketing year and average farm price is projected at $3.90/bu.
For soybeans in the 2014/15 marketing year, the USDA projects production up 261 million bushels on higher harvested acreage and improved yield. Total production is estimated at 3.55 billion bushels. Total use is estimated at 3.43 billion bushels up due to strong domestic crush numbers and exports. Ending stocks and prices are estimated at 285 million bushels and $9.65/bu.
For wheat in the 2014/15 marketing year, the USDA has projected production of 2.16 billion bushels up 30 million bushels from 2013/14. Total use is projected down 178 million bushels primarily due to a 60 million bushel reduction in feed and residual use and a decrease in exports of 125 million bushels. The projected farm price for the 2014/15 marketing year is $5.30/bu.
Read more from Smith at “Weekly Crop Comments.”