India has confirmed its export ban on cotton will remain in place despite the uproar from various international entities including China, which had the most cotton bought, but not yet shipped. The ban was first announced March 5.
According to Sharon Johnson Crump, analyst with First Capital Group, in a statement regarding USDA’s March 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, “If the Indian government follows a similar pattern as in April 2010, the ban will be eventually lifted, but if it occurs several weeks from now, buyers would have moved on to other suppliers such as the United States.”
(For the initial report on the Indian cotton export ban, click here).
Here’s more from the WASDE report:
Estimated mill use was reduced 100,000 bales from last month, and ending stocks were raised to 3.9 million bales. Higher supplies and lower consumption resulted in an increase of nearly 1.6 million bales in forecast global ending stocks.
India export forecast of 7.75 million bales assumes that the ban on further exports announced March 5, 2012, remains in place. Forecast world imports were raised 1.35 million bales, due mainly to a 1.5-million-bale increase in imports by China, where nearly 40 percent of domestic production has been placed in the government reserve. Based on these revisions, China’s ending stocks are now projected at just over 20 million bales.
Soybeans and corn
U.S. soybean exports are unchanged at 1.275 billion bushels. Brazil soybean production is forecast at 68.5 million tons, down 3.5 million tons from last month due to lower projected yields resulting from hot, dry conditions in the southern states.
Argentina soybean production was reduced 1.5 million tons to 46.5 million. Despite improved weather in recent weeks in much of the country, lower yields are projected due to continued warm, dry weather through February in northeastern growing areas.
Balance sheets for corn and sorghum are unchanged from the previous month.
U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2011-12 are projected 20 million bushels lower this month as lower food use was more than offset by higher exports. Global wheat supplies for 2011-12 are nearly unchanged. Global wheat consumption for 2011-12 was raised 3.5 million tons. Global ending stocks for 2011-12 are projected 3.5 million tons lower.