Despite record rainfall in some areas of the Southeast and Virginia-Carolina peanut belts, this year’s crop appears to be on track to be a good one.

Lamb speculates it may not be as big as the record 4,200 pounds per acre produced last year, but it is on track to be a high yielding and high quality crop.

If the acreage reduction is as much as 40 percent, as has been projected by some industry sources, and yields approach 4,000 pounds per acre, the carry-out will still be too high, but could be manageable.

If the final acreage total is more in the 27-28 percent ranges, as was projected earlier in the growing season, and the yield is comparable to last year’s record yield, the carryover would be much too high and could really cause problems that would trickle down to growers.

The current uncertainties of this year’s crop are still being magnified by the 2012 crop, which produced the record yield per acre and was produced on a high acreage total that topped 1.6 million. The subsequent 1.260 million ton carry-out has created a historic over-supply that make the outcome of this year’s crop more critical, Lamb says.

Revival of export trading that characterized the first four months of the current peanut season is critical to managing the over-supply problems that are being faced by U.S. growers.

“China was on track to import something close to 300,000 metric tons of U.S. grown peanuts, but it now seems unlikely exports will buy that many peanuts this year,” Lamb says.

New customers, like the Ukraine, Indonesia and Algeria are buying small quantities of peanuts, but combined with other non-traditional peanut buyers, could be important players in reviving the early rise in the export market.

The world’s largest peanut butter consumer on a per capita basis, Canada needs to remain a good customer for U.S. grown peanuts.