What is in this article?:
- Wheat prices need to divorce corn
- Acreage projection
• If wheat prices maintain the close relationship with corn, wheat prices and profits may dramatically decline.
These corn projections are based on about 94 million corn planted acres and an average yield of about 161 bushels per acre.
Why KCBT and CBT wheat contract prices are higher for the December 2012 contracts than the March/May/July contracts is somewhat of a mystery.
The 2011/12 wheat U.S. and world ending stocks are projected to be above the 5- and 10-year averages. The 2012/13 U.S. and world wheat production is expected to result in increased wheat ending stocks.
Market analysts have estimated 2012 U.S. wheat planted acres to be 57.2 million acres, which is 5.2 percent more than last year. Wheat production is projected to be 2.2 billion bushels.
Wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected to increase to from 801 million bushels to 950 million bushels. With world ending stocks also expected to increase, it is hard to justify increasing wheat prices.
Wheat futures contract price increases may be due to drought conditions in the heart of hard red winter and hard spring wheat production areas.
Concern exists about reduced wheat planted acres in Ukraine and freeze damage to wheat in Eastern Europe, Ukraine, and southern Russia. Northern China has drought problems.
World and U.S. wheat planted acres are expected to be higher than last year. World and U.S. wheat stocks are above average. However, the market is still sending the price signals to ensure adequate food wheat is available.
If these concerns are alleviated (by a relatively large 1012/13 world wheat crop), wheat prices could look like corn prices and decline $1.20. To the dismay of wheat producers, this could save the wheat/corn marriage, and corn prices would support wheat prices at a lower level.