What is in this article?:
- Wheat, grain markets buying time
- India may export some wheat
• Few market signals are indicating that wheat or corn futures prices will break out of the sideways patterns in the near future.
• The market believes 2013 wheat production will not be sufficient to change the current wheat supply, demand, and price situations.
• Unless the drought is broken within the next six weeks, corn has more downside price risk than wheat.
Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) December wheat contract prices have been trading in a sideways price pattern between $8.69 and $9.57 since July 13.
Chicago Board of Trade (CBT) December corn contract prices have been in a sideways price pattern between $7.33 and $7.76 since Sept. 28.
Few market signals are indicating that wheat or corn futures prices will break out of the sideways patterns in the near future.
Also interesting to note is that the KCBT December 2013 wheat contract price is about 8 cents above the KCBT December 2012 wheat contract price. This implies the market believes 2013 wheat production will not be sufficient to change the current wheat supply, demand, and price situations.
Corn is a different story. The CBT December 2013 corn contract price is about $1.10 less than the CBT December 2012 corn contract price. As has been reported over the last month, the market expects that 2013 corn production will be sufficient to build corn stocks.
Most market chatter affects distant prices and has little to do with current market prices. The chatter includes U.S. winter wheat and corn production area drought conditions, wheat production in Argentina and Australia, foreign wheat stocks and exports, and corn plantings in Argentina and Brazil.
About the only market factor that has the potential to affect nearby wheat prices is Argentina’s and/or Australia’s wheat production. Both of these harvests are in progress and will continue through December.
Once Argentina’s and Australia’s wheat harvests are complete, the next major exportable harvest is the 2013 U.S. winter wheat crop.