What is in this article?:
- Weaker dollar will continue to buoy U.S. ag exports
- Wheat prices to decline
• Highlights from USDA's Agricultural Long-Term Projections include higher corn acreage in the near term and lower soybean plantings.
• Cotton acres are expected to rise in the near term after 2012, but fall toward the end of the projection period.
• A weak dollar will continue to bode well for exports.
Wheat prices to decline
Wheat prices are expected to decline through 2014-15 reflecting near-term market adjustments. Projected price increases for wheat are more moderate than those for corn, reflecting smaller gains in use.
U.S. soybean plantings are expected to decline from high levels of 2012 early in the projection period, as prices and producer returns fall. Over the rest of the projection period, growth in both domestic use and export demand is expected to lead to increases in prices and returns.
Soybean plantings are expected to increase somewhat before remaining steady toward the end of the projection period.
Strong global demand for soybeans, particularly in China, is projected to boost soybean trade over the projection period.
Competition from South America could lead to a reduction in the U.S. share of global soybean trade from 39 percent in 2013-14 to about 30 percent by 2022-23.
Strengthening demand for soybeans is expect to hold prices high through 2022. Soybean prices are expected to fall from recent highs, but are projected to rise moderately after 2014-15.
Although lower cotton prices following the price run-up of 2010-12 are expected to lead to a reduction in plantings in 2013, cotton plantings are projected to rise through 2015 as prices and returns for competing crops decline over the next several years.
However, with cotton yields and cotton prices rising only moderately, producer returns are expected to decline relative to those of other crops, so upland cotton plantings are projected to decline through the end of 2022.
U.S. mill use of upland cotton is projected to rise moderately while cotton exports initially rise before leveling off after 2016-17. The U.S. share of global cotton trade is expected to decline later in the projection period.
Nonetheless, with a global trade share projected at 32 percent in 2022-23, the United States is expected to remain the world’s largest exporter of cotton.
Competition from other crops will likely keep U.S. rice acreage from increasing in 2013. In the longer-term, rice acres will rise on lower relative prices for competing crops.
U.S. rice imports are projected to expand over the next decade, but at a slower rate than in the past. Asian aromatic varieties are expected to continue to account for the bulk of U.S. purchases.
U.S. rice exports are projected to rebound from a low level in 2013-14 and increase over the next decade.
Continued growth of U.S. rough-rice exports to Latin America (nearly all long-grain rice) is projected to account for most of the overall expansion of U.S. rice exports.
Rice prices are projected to rise after 2014-15.