What is in this article?:
- Volatility name of the game with commodity prices
- Interest rates bumping upward
• The good news is that commodity prices are high, but the bad news is that input costs also will be higher in 2011.
• Lenders also will be taking a close look at cash flow. They want to make sure you’ll be able to service any loans they put out there.
Interest rates bumping upward
Interest rates, he says, have been at historic lows in recent months, but they’re starting to bump up somewhat. “Interest rates are good, but lenders have tightened up. As far as long-term loans go, they don’t want to tie up their money for a long period of time, especially when they’re anticipating that interest rates will go up. Loans are going to be more credit-score driven. The better your credit score, the better off you’ll be in borrowing money of any kind.
“Lenders also will be taking a close look at cash flow. They want to make sure you’ll be able to service any loans they put out there. They became really nervous last year after about June when the rain stopped. Good communications with your lender will pay off in the long-run,” says Runge.
Direct marketing experts appear to have different opinions now about the direction of prices, he says. And many economists talk about marketing one-third of the crop at planting, one-third during the growing season, and one-third at or after harvest.
“A lot of people price on or after harvest. Their marketing plan is to put it in a truck, head to the elevator, unload it, and get a check,” says Runge.
Looking back at 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010, Runge says corn futures prices were poor in those years. In 2007, the highest prices were at planting and during the growing season. In 2008, the highest prices were in June and July, during the growing season. In 2009, prior to planting and after harvest, prices were lowest.
It’s difficult to look at these trends and use them as a guide for when to market, he says. “You need to remember that if you can lock in a profit at $5.50 corn, it’s hard not do go ahead and do it. A year ago, we were looking at $4.34 to $4.40 corn, $10 soybeans and 70-cent cotton. The opportunity for better prices certainly is out there. But if you can go ahead and lock it in a profit, it’s hard to go wrong,” says Runge.