What is in this article?:
- There is no perfect wheat marketing strategy
- Cash market strategies
• No perfect strategy exists for selling wheat.
• If someone could predict prices, they would sell all their wheat on a single day.
The perfect wheat marketing plan for 2012 harvested wheat would have been to sell all the wheat on Friday, July 20, 2012.
The Central Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle price was about $9.05. Subtracting 5 cents storage and interest (carry) costs, the net price would have been $9. Nine dollars will be used as the price generated from the perfect 2012 wheat marketing plan.
In the following analysis, the assumption was that wheat was stored in a commercial elevator for 4 cents per bushel per month ($0.00133 per day). Storage and interest costs to own wheat until Oct. 15 was 17 cents, 21 cents until Nov. 15, and 25 cents until Dec. 10.
Prices, after subtracting carry, were $6.53 on June 20, $8.01 on Oct. 15, $8.14 on Nov. 15, and $7.95 on Dec. 10.
Given the volatility of prices, no statistical difference occurred in the October, November, and December prices. This event means that if different days were selected to sell the wheat, the prices relationships would change, and any of the months could have had the highest price.
If the one-third strategy (sell one-third on June 20, one-third on Oct. 15, and the final third on Nov. 15) was used, the net price would have been $7.56.
On April 1, wheat could have been forward contracted for $6.42, and the June 20 price was $6.53.
Forward contracting one-half of expected production on April 1 and selling the remainder of the wheat on June 20 would have netted $6.47 per bushel.