Odds are corn market volatility will continue

What is in this article?:

• On June 30 the USDA will release the Acreage Report, which will be based on a survey taken the first week of June, on planted and expected to be planted and harvested acres.

• While this will be good information, given this year's late planting and flooding, there is more room for error.

How many acres of corn were planted, how many will be harvested, and an even bigger question, what will the corn yield be, both regionally and nationally?

And that is only looking at the supply side of the price equation.

On the demand side, we have the same questions with regards to world corn/coarse grain production, plus the U.S. and world growth rates, oil/gas prices, value of the dollar, livestock numbers, final votes on the ethanol subsidy and import tariff, etc.

On June 9 the USDA updated their U.S. Corn Supply/Demand Balance Sheets. Using the weekly crop progress reports, limited information on flooding and drown outs, etc, i.e., decent information, but still "muddy" information, they lower projected planted corn acres 1.5 million acres relative to the March Intentions.

This seems a very reasonable prediction to me, but that is what it is, a prediction based on the best information we had.

The USDA also lowered expected harvested acres 1.9 million acres, that is made up of the 1.5 less planted acres, plus the best estimate of acres that were planted but have/will be flooded out.

On June 30 the USDA will release the Acreage Report, which will be based on a survey taken the first week of June, on planted and expected to be planted and harvested acres. While this will be good information, given this year's late planting and flooding, there is more room for error.

The USDA left their 2011 yield estimate the same as the May report, which had already been adjusted down from trend some for late plantings.

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