• Trading opened up at the CME Group at 7:20 a.m. in anticipation of the 7:30 a.m. report release.
• There were not a lot of surprises in the report, so this probably was a good day for it to start.
USDA’s lowered old crop ending stocks 200,000 bales to 3.2 million bales on a like increase in exports. It is possible future reports could see higher exports, but most likely USDA is waiting to see if cancellations occur as the marketing year winds down in July.
The projected price range for 2011/12 was also unchanged at 91 cents per pound. The stocks to use ratio was lowered to 21.3%.
World projections for old crop ending stocks were 440,000 bales higher at 67.32 million bales.
New crop production was left unchanged from May as it awaits the June 30 acreage report and an update on yields in the July 11 USDA report.
New crop ending stocks were unchanged from May at 4.90 million bales as the drop in beginning stocks was offset by a 200,000 bale drop in exports.
The season average price for new crop is projected to range from 60 to 80 cents per pound, 5 cents lower on each end.
Global stocks are projected to increase 760,000 bales to 74.51 million bales, which would be another record stock. Keep in contact with your cotton buyer on current quotes.
December cotton closed at 68.84 cents/pound, down 0.45 cents. Technical analysis has a strong sell with support at 67.23 and resistance at 70.31.
Over the past 31 years the average difference between the June projection for U.S. ending stocks and the final estimate has been 1.6 million bales with 16 years below the final estimate and 15 years above.
These numbers can and will change, but do reflect the best information and estimates at the time of the report.
The next USDA Supply & Demand report will be released July 11, 2012..