June 12 was somewhat of an historic day in the annals of USDA reports as the futures market marked the first day markets were trading as the USDA Supply & Demand reports were released.

Trading opened up at the CME Group at 7:20 a.m. in anticipation of the 7:30 a.m. report release. There were not a lot of surprises in the report, so this probably was a good day for it to start.


In the June 12 USDA report, old crop corn ending stocks were left unchanged from last month at 851 million bushels as corn for ethanol was increased 50 million bushels, but offset by a 50 million bushel decrease in exports.

The trade average guess for ending stocks was 828 million bushels. It was expected that feed and residual use would not be updated until the July 11 report which will reflect the June 30 Quarterly Stocks report.

The stocks to use ratio is unchanged at 6.7 percent.  

The season average price is unchanged from last month and is projected to range from $5.95 to $6.25 a bushel.

Global old crop corn stocks increased 64 million bushels from last month to 5.1 billion bushels. New crop projected ending stocks for the 2012/13 marketing year are unchanged from May at 1.881 billion bushels, 140 million bushels higher than the average trade guess.

The new crop numbers were left unchanged with USDA essentially opting to wait until the July report to update acreage and most likely yields. At that time the trade will mostly likely anticipate a drop in the yield due to weather conditions since planting.

The new crop season average price is unchanged and is projected to range from $4.20 to $5.00 a bushel.

Global stocks are projected at 6.13 billion bushels, 134 million bushels higher than last month. At least until the June 30 Acreage and Stocks report, the market will be focusing on the weather and weekly crop progress condition ratings.

September corn closed down 14 cents at $5.26 ½ a bushel.

Technical analysis has a sell bias with support at $5.13 and resistance at $5.41. In weekly comments, I am 50 percent priced over all.

Over the past 31 years the average difference between the June projection for U.S. ending stocks and the final estimate has been 615 million bushels with 16 years below the final estimate and 15 years above.

 The next USDA Supply & Demand report will be released July 11, 2012