What is in this article?:
- Markets taking hard look at U.S. crop export numbers
- Corn numbers
• “With prospects for very small crops, the potential strength of export demand for wheat, corn, and soybeans is of increasing importance as crop problems have also been experienced in other parts of the world,” said University of Illinois agricultural economist Darrel Good.
For corn, the 2011-12 marketing year ended on a very weak note for exports.
“Based on Census Bureau estimates through June and export inspection estimates through Aug. 30, it appears that marketing year exports will total about 1.535 billion bushels, 15 million below the already very small forecast of 1.55 billion,” Good said.
“The USDA has forecast 2012-13 marketing-year exports at 1.3 billion bushels as exports will be limited by the small U.S. crop, the 25 percent increase in the Brazilian corn harvest earlier this year, prospects for larger feed-grain crops in Canada and Mexico, and smaller imports by China.
“U.S. exports may receive some support from smaller crops and reduced exports from Russia and the Ukraine. The size of the 2013 corn crop in South America will be important for U.S. export prospects during the last half of the marketing year,” he said.
As of Aug. 30, the USDA reported corn export sales to be delivered during the 2012-13 marketing year at 321 million bushels. With carryover sales of about 60 million bushels from the 2011-12 marketing year, total sales are still about 145 million bushels less than sales at the same time last year.
The pace of sales of U.S. corn needs to move above 20 million bushels per week, compared to the most recent four-week average of 6.4 million, in order to be on track to reach the USDA projection.
Good reported that for soybeans the 2011-12 marketing year ended on a strong note for exports.
Based on Census Bureau estimates through June and export inspection estimates through Aug. 30, it appears that marketing-year exports will total about 1.36 billion bushels, 10 million above the USDA forecast.
The USDA has forecast 2012-13 marketing-year exports at only 1.1 billion bushels, reflecting this year’s small harvest. The short U.S. crop comes on the heels of a 660-million-bushel year-over-year reduction in combined production in Argentina and Brazil.
As of Aug. 30, the USDA reported U.S. soybean export sales for delivery during the 2012-13 marketing year at 664 million bushels. Nearly 65 percent of those sales were to China, and 26 percent were to unknown destinations.
Carryover sales from the 2011-12 marketing year will be nearly 70 million bushels, so export commitments total about 734 million bushels, two-thirds of the USDA projection for the marketing year.
Weekly sales that averaged 25.4 million bushels for the four weeks ended Aug. 30 now need to average only 7 million bushels per week to bring sales to 1.1 billion bushels.
“The export demand for corn and wheat is important for prices of those commodities, but the impact is somewhat muted since corn exports are now a relatively small percentage of the total consumption of U.S. corn and domestic wheat supplies are relatively more abundant,” Good said.
“The soybean production shortfalls experienced in 2012, in combination with continued large purchases by China, make the soybean export situation dicey. The large South American soybean crop expected in 2013 will be needed to avoid a severe rationing situation next spring and summer,” he said.