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• The current thinking seems to be that acreage will be shifted from corn to soybeans as the current large corn harvest will result in a substantial buildup of inventories and low corn prices in relation to soybean prices.
The 2013-14 marketing year for corn and soybeans is only in its second month.
According to Darrel Good, a University of Illinois agricultural economist, there are many unknowns about the size of those crops, the demand strength, and prices.
Despite these uncertainties, the market is trying to anticipate planted acreage in 2014, and some analysts are already forecasting acreage levels for next year.
“Anticipating acreage for 2014 is complicated by unfinished business with respect to 2013 acreage estimates,” said Good. “As background, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) estimates that planted acreage of ‘principal crops’ from 2007 through 2012 ranged from 315.1 million (2011) to 326.3 million (2012).”
Principal crops include planted acreage of corn, sorghum, oats, barley, rye, wheat, rice, soybeans, peanuts, sunflower, cotton, dry edible beans, potatoes, sugar beets, canola, and proso millet; harvested acreage of hay, tobacco, and sugar cane; double-cropped acres; and unharvested small grains planted as cover crops.
Variation in planted acreage reflects variation in the amount of double-cropped acreage, failed acreage replanted to another crop, and the magnitude of prevented planted acreage.
“When the Farm Service Agency (FSA) estimate of prevented plantings is added to the NASS estimate of planted acreage, the total from 2007 through 2012 varied from 322 million (2007) to 327.5 million (2012),” Good said.
In the June 2013 Acreage Report, NASS estimated planted acreage of principal crops this year at 325.6 million acres.