USDA bumped exports and production in old crop cotton while, raising corn ending stocks to a surprisingly low 757 million bushels in its April 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Here’s more.


Domestic corn use for 2012-13 is projected 100 million bushels lower as a 50-million-bushel increase in corn for ethanol partly offset a projected 150 million bushel decline in feed and residual use.

Corn exports for 2012-13 were projected 25 million bushels lower, reflecting the continued sluggish pace of sales and shipments and additional competition from Brazil and Ukraine. Projected U.S. corn ending stocks for 2012-13 were raised 125 million bushels to 757 million bushels, significantly lower than trade estimates of nearly a billion bushels.


Old crop cotton production was raised 280,000 bales based on USDA’s final Cotton Ginnings report, released March 25.

Exports were raised to 13 million bales, based on larger supply and strong export shipments to date. Ending stocks remained around 4.2 million bales.

The marketing year average price received by producers is now forecast at 70.5 to 73.5 cents per pound, up 0.5 cent on each end of the range, reflecting recent higher prices.

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World 2012-13 ending stocks are now projected at 82.5 million bales, nearly 1 percent above last month.

According to USDA, China’s higher imports are expected to displace potential sales from its massive national reserve, raising stocks there to a projected 45.6 million bales. Stocks outside of China are projected 2 percent below last month.

According to Sharon Johnson with Knight Futures, “Today’s numbers are friendly since the rest of the world stocks are down despite the increase in China.”