What is in this article?:
• During the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s, world nutrient demand rose in a fairly predictable fashion. That made it relatively easy to plan new nitrogen plants, new mines and things like that.
• Such ease of planning was wiped away in 1989 with the collapse of the Soviet Union.
• Several factors should lead to increases in long-term fertilizer demand.
2011 bullet points
Entering 2011, Vroomen said growers should keep these facts in mind:
· On the potash side, specifically, (data suggests) India and China’s use will continue to grow even quicker than N and phosphate.
· On the negative side, ammonia rail rates will continue to rise.
· EPA has allowed higher amounts of ethanol in fuel.
· All these things should lead to increases in long-term fertilizer demand.
· In 2010/2011, “we have strong demand for nitrogen and, again, recovery in P and “K.
· Raw material prices, natural gas, “went very high in 2007/2008 and dropped dramatically with the development of shale gas production in the United States. Recently, those prices have risen rapidly.”
· Phosphate prices — historically, around $25 before hitting record highs in 2007/2008 — are lower but still well above historical levels.
· The value of the U.S. dollar is also negative. “It was very low in 2007/2008 and is again.”