Entering 2011, Vroomen said growers should keep these facts in mind:

·    On the potash side, specifically, (data suggests) India and China’s use will continue to grow even quicker than N and phosphate.

·    On the negative side, ammonia rail rates will continue to rise.

·    EPA has allowed higher amounts of ethanol in fuel.

·    All these things should lead to increases in long-term fertilizer demand.

·    In 2010/2011, “we have strong demand for nitrogen and, again, recovery in P and “K.

·    Raw material prices, natural gas, “went very high in 2007/2008 and dropped dramatically with the development of shale gas production in the United States. Recently, those prices have risen rapidly.”

·    Phosphate prices — historically, around $25 before hitting record highs in 2007/2008 — are lower but still well above historical levels.

·    The value of the U.S. dollar is also negative. “It was very low in 2007/2008 and is again.”

   dbennett@farmpress.com