Tight crop supplies and record farm prices dominate a mid-year baseline update from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri.



“Drought, floods and changing economics raise the outlook for many agricultural commodities,” said Pat Westhoff, director, MU FAPRI.



A new baseline update takes those changes into account, Westhoff said, but does not represent a full baseline report. The updated baseline will be used for independent economic analysis of farm, budget and biofuel policies.



Wet conditions and floods delayed and prevented plantings across the Corn Belt and Northern Plains. Droughts across the South and other areas added to the factors changing the outlook.

Baseline

In the FAPRI baseline, corn prices increase on average from $5.25 per bushel to $6.46 for the 2011-12 crop to be harvested this fall.

Likewise, soybeans rise from a projected $11.25 this year to $13.53 per bushel for 2011-12.



The baseline starts from the USDA August estimates of 2011 crop production. Those estimates showed below-trend yields for corn, soybeans and several other crops.