The economics behind renewable fuels reflect a new reality that goes well beyond the mandate. At today’s energy and livestock prices, a bushel of corn is simply worth more passed through a vehicle’s tail pipe than it is passed through a chicken or a hog’s stomach. In fact, one can make a strong case that a bushel of corn is worth close to $10 per bushel by extracting all the energy and leaving the protein for an animal feed.

Nearly the entire petroleum refining industry is set up to refine oil to 84 octane content, with ethanol added to boost it to 87 octane. It is actually cheaper for the refining system to produce 87 octane gasoline using ethanol than it is to refine oil to a full 87 octane.

It took the RFS mandate to convince the oil companies of that fact. It is fairly certain that oil companies would revert to a full oil-based fuel – and raise the price of gasoline – if the renewable mandate were removed.

Further, with oil in the $80-$90 per barrel range, one recent study suggested that waiving the RFS in the short-term would only lower the price of corn by roughly 25 cents. Another suggested that corn prices next year would be affected anywhere between nothing and $1.30 per bushel.

What we are really facing is a problem of low grain stocks and of holding enough reserves to get through this temporary situation.

Let me be emphatically clear on this point: re-creating a government stocks program does not work for any sector of production agriculture. History shows that significant price swings are a natural part of the marketing cycle – even before ethanol and exports were players in the agricultural sector.

One must go back to the 1930s to find the last time we had a severe drought but did not have the dead weight of government stocks hanging over the market. And we saw price swings then very similar to what we are witnessing today.

As farmers and ranchers, whether a producer of crops or livestock, we know weather and markets are fickle, taking the shape of friend one minute and foe the next. Risk protection tools help smooth out those peaks and valleys, always with an eye toward a better tomorrow.

But there is no denying the fact that livestock producers are in a period of fundamental change. The challenges they face cannot be minimized.

As an organization, Farm Bureau will continue to have the internal discussion and work through our policy process as we always have. We are all of agriculture and will work toward finding the solution that represents the combined will and wisdom of our diverse membership. We are all in this together and we are in it for the long haul.