With the increase in demand, what countries will supply the wheat needed? USDA expects that producers in the Black Sea region, mainly Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan, will grasp a much larger share of the world export market by 2021/2022, to the detriment of the traditional five largest wheat exporters.

USDA projects the Black Sea region will increase market share from 26 percent this year to 29 percent in 2021/22. If realized, Russia will be the third largest exporter at 23.8 MMT, accounting for 15 percent of total world market share.

USDA noted in the report that the region is prone to volatility in production and trade due to highly variable weather and yields.

The most recent example of this volatility was 2010/2011 when the region’s market share dropped to 11 percent because of severe drought that led to a government-imposed export ban. 

The European Union and Argentina are the only traditional exporters expected to increase market share in the next 10 years, by 3 and 1 percent, respectively.

USDA predicts that with 25.9 MMT, the European Union will surpass the United States as the world’s largest exporter in 2021/2022. 

USDA expects U.S. exports to decline 5 percent to 24.5 MMT by 2021/2022. Total U.S. market share is projected to drop from 19 percent in 2011/12 to 16 percent in 2021/2022 — well below the 24 percent average of the past 10 years.

Canada’s projected market share will drop almost 2 percent and Australia will lose about 1 percent market share, if realized. 

USDA’s long-term predictions indicate a steady growth for the wheat industry through 2021/22. However, the landscape of the industry may look very different as the world will experience a shift in both the major wheat importers and exporters if these projections materialize. 

To read USDA’s long-term projections, visit http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/baseline/.

To read U.S. Wheat Associates’ analysis on Wheat Import Projections towards 2050, visit http://www.uswheat.org/newsEvents/wheatLetter/doc/80E8BEA4307087A58525781E0080F934?OpenDocument.