AccuWeather.com reports wheat growers in India expect this year’s harvest to surpass last year’s record crop, and a near-normal rainfall forecast for monsoon season is good news for other agriculture.
Analysts in India, the second largest producer of wheat, expect the country to produce 82 million tonnes during the 2009-2010 harvest, which is up from 80.68 million tonnes last year.
AccuWeather.com meteorologists said that March yielded some of the warmest temperatures on record for many regions in India. However, it appears the wheat crop was far enough along not to be affected by the record warmth.
Premature ripening as a result of the heat could cause high production yields to be eased, but early harvests already show local stockpiles having as much as four times the minimum needed to cope with emergencies.
As of April 21, government agencies in India have already purchased 15.26 million tonnes of wheat in comparison to 13.89 million last year, according to Reuters.
Analysts in India also said the monsoon forecast release, accompanied by record inventories, limited buying futures on wheat purchases as of late.
Historically, food prices fall when a favorable monsoon forecast is released.
The India Meteorological Department’s monsoon forecast calls for near-normal seasonal rainfall for June through September, 2010, according to IMD’s head meteorologist.
The forecaster at that time said last year’s deficient summer rain, the lowest in 37 years, was unlikely to recur. The outlook is based in part on supercomputer numerical modeling, together with the consideration that one bad rain year is rarely followed by another.