EDITOR’S NOTE — The following report was prepared by members of USDA’s Wheat, Feed Grains, Rice, and Oilseeds Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees and presented at the agency’s 2013 Outlook Conference.

This paper provides USDA’s projections of 2013/14 supply and demand for wheat, corn, rice, and soybeans and products.

Projections presented in this paper include implications of the Jan. 11Winter Wheat Seedings report.

Projections assume normal weather conditions for spring planting and summer crop development.

These projections will be updated in the May 10th World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. The May WASDE will incorporate farmers’ 2013 planting intentions as reported in the March 28th Prospective Plantings and survey-based forecasts for winter wheat production, as well as global, country-by-country supply and demand projections.

Summary

The 2013/14 outlook for grains and oilseeds reflects another year of large plantings supported by strong new-crop prices. Prospects for high net returns and crop insurance revenue coverage support combined 2013 area for wheat, corn, and soybeans very near last year’s 30-year high.

Last year’s plantings were boosted by favorable spring weather. Despite lower cotton plantings and a decline in Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) enrollment for 2013, a return to more normal planting weather keeps aggregate area from increasing.

Wheat production is projected lower with higher abandonment and a return to trend yields from last year’s record high. Lower wheat feed and residual use and exports partly offset the production decline leaving ending stocks lower. Corn plantings are projected down slightly on the year, but production is expected to be record high with more acres harvested for grain and a rebound in yields.

Feed and residual use rises sharply with the larger crop. Weak gasoline consumption limits the recovery in corn used to produce ethanol and strong foreign competition tempers the rebound in exports.

Corn ending stocks are projected to more than triple, pushing prices sharply lower.

Soybean planted area is projected slightly higher than last year with favorable net returns, increased double-cropping, and reduced cotton plantings. Soybean supplies are projected to increase as higher production more than offsets lower beginning stocks and imports.

Soybean ending stocks are projected to rise from the exceptionally low level projected for 2012/13 as competition from South America limits potential export gains.

Rice planted acreage is projected to decline as higher returns for alternative crops reduce area in the southern states. Total use is projected lower with expected declines in domestic and residual use and exports.

All-rice ending stocks are projected lower with medium- and short-grain stocks accounting for most of the reduction. The all-rice, long-grain, and combined medium- and short-grain prices are all expected higher.