What is in this article?:
- Corn, soybean yields now drawing attention
- Track record changes in June
• The near completion of planting, except for double-cropped soybeans, and less threatening weather may reduce crop concerns for now, resulting in some modest price weakness.
Track record changes in June
The track record for corn acreage changes in the June WASDE report since 1995 has been generally very good. In the three years cited above, the June forecast of harvested acreage differed from the final estimate by 0.8, 0.2, and 1.7 million acres, respectively.
"Although the soybean acreage forecasts were not changed in the June WASDE report this year, it is interesting to note that acreage forecasts were all increased in 1995, 1996 and 2002.
"In fact, planted acreage did exceed March intentions in all three years," he noted.
The June forecast of harvested acreage in 1995 was equal to the final estimate while the forecasts in 1996 and 2002 differed from the final estimates by only 0.4 and 0.3 million acres, responsively. Soybean planting delays were greater in 1995 and 1996 than in 2011 but were less severe in 2002.
"Given the record of soybean acreage increases in years of late corn planting, an increase in the forecast of 2011 acreage would not have been surprising.
"The unknown factors this year include how much acreage intended for corn was left unplanted due to prevent-planting provisions of crop insurance rather than switched to soybeans and how much soybean acreage may have been lost to flooding," he said.
On the supply side, the market's attention will now turn more to yield prospects. For the most part, those prospects will be based on the USDA's weekly estimates of crop conditions.
"As of June 5, 67 percent of the emerged corn crop was rated in good or excellent condition, up from 63 percent on May 29. The average end-of-year rating since 1986 is near 64 percent good to excellent," he noted.
Last week, 21 percent of the crop still had not emerged, compared to an average of only 10 percent in the previous 5 years.
Crop condition ratings as of June 12 will be more complete, and a larger percentage of the crop is expected to be rated in good or excellent condition. Generally cooler weather, with adequate moisture, in the heart of the Corn Belt should keep crop condition ratings high in June.
The near completion of planting, except for double-cropped soybeans, and less threatening weather may reduce crop concerns for now, resulting in some modest price weakness. The June 30 USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks reports will provide additional price direction, he said.