The largest yield shortfalls occurred in 1974, 1983, 1988 and 1993. Of those years, only the 1993 crop was considered to be a late-planted crop.”

In the previous six years of late soybean planting identified above, the U.S. average yield was at or above trend yield in four years. The average yield fell slightly below trend in 1995 with a modestly larger shortfall in 1993.

Good said that the largest shortfalls in the U.S. average soybean yield relative to trend occurred in 1974, 1980, 1983, 1984, 1988 and 2003. Of those years, only the 1974 crop was considered to be a late-planted crop.

“The generally warmer, drier conditions now being experienced are likely favorable for crop development,” Good noted.  

“At the same time, early summer conditions this year are not similar to the summer weather conditions of 2009 that resulted in a record large U.S. average corn yield. The widespread favorable weather conditions of 2009 have occurred only rarely over the past 50 years.”

In addition to the uncertainty surrounding yield potential of the 2011 corn and soybean crops, there is more than the normal amount of uncertainty surrounding acreage prospects.

“The uncertainty stems from a combination of regional flooding, late planting, and the relatively attractive payments that are available to some producers under the prevent plant provisions of the crop insurance program,” he explained.

Although the magnitude of total planted crop acreage and the mix of crops planted is still very much in doubt late in the season, the planting progress revealed in USDA’s June 6 Crop Progress report may provide some additional insight on both of these issues, he said.

“Recent price behavior suggests that the corn and soybean markets have become more optimistic about acreage, yield, and production prospects for 2011. That optimism seems more justified for soybeans than corn. The corn market may be weighting the 2009 experience too heavily,” Good noted.