What is in this article?:
- Analysis shows grain trade should grow rapidly
- Much growth will have occurred by 2030
• Global trade flow must adjust to meet demand in regions where population is growing fastest, but are not self-sufficient in wheat, corn and soybeans.
New analysis by USW indicates that world trade in three major grain commodities is likely to grow by 50 percent in the next 20 years.
Global trade flow must adjust to meet demand in regions where population is growing fastest, but are not self-sufficient in wheat, corn and soybeans. This has challenging implications throughout the grain trade, said USW President Alan Tracy, who presented the analysis at the IGC Annual Grains Conference in London.
This study was presented as a follow-up to a recent USW study concluding that global wheat trade could double by 2050.
In both studies conducted by Market Analyst Chad Weigand, vice-president of Overseas Operation Vince Peterson and Tracy, USW projected production, consumption and import volumes for North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East based on data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
“We first chose 2050 as our horizon because that is when population is expected to reach 9 billion,” Tracy said.
“With world wheat trade having been flat for many years, projecting a doubling by 2050 was all the more dramatic. Recognizing that most of us would not be around in 2050 to see if we were correct, we decided to revamp the study to include a shorter time horizon and expand the analysis to include trade in corn and soybeans.”