New analysis out last week from the University of Illinois suggests a target price-based risk management program that could accompany the House Agriculture Committee’s version of the 2012 farm bill may offer a far more favorable safety net for some crops than for others, a prospect that worries the American Soybean Association (ASA).

Gary Schnitkey, an agricultural economist at the University of Illinois, issued a study last week showing the benefit to producers in each commodity group under the target price-based program included in the farm bill crafted by the House and Senate Agriculture Committees as part of the Super Committee process last fall.

These target prices may serve as the starting point for the House Ag Committee’s proposal expected to be unveiled soon.

In Schnitkey’s analysis, shown below, target prices for soybeans and corn are significantly lower than those for other crops and the relative projected prices for each crop under the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) 10-year baseline.

While soybean and corn target prices in the proposal would be set at 77 percent of projected prices, requiring a 23 percent drop in price before triggering a payment, target prices for rice and peanuts would be set at 106 percent of projected prices, triggering far more frequent payments.