A little moisture provides a bit of optimism. So does an upward trend in the market.

“Having a little more moisture in the ground in some areas and a cotton market that seems to be on the uptick could certainly bode well for cotton, although it's still a little early to tell the true impact,” she said.

“We aren't expecting as much of an acreage shift on the High Plains as in other parts of the Cotton Belt; we expect to see anywhere from 3.7 to 4 million acres of cotton planted here in 2013, which actually is around our five-year average.” 

John Robison, Texas AgriLife Extension cotton marketing specialist, says a good bit of uncertainty still exists for cotton acreage. “Historically the NCC estimate tracks fairly closely with what is surveyed by USDA in March and again in June.

“However, some years there is as much as a 10 percent to 15 percent change from the NCC number to the June number, for the same kinds of reasons that we might see this year: changes in relative prices between cotton and feed grains, and drought.”

Drought conditions generally tend to favor cotton in Texas (with uncertain outcome for production). 2011 is the most extreme example.

“NCC measured something close to what USDA measured in March (6 million acres planted in Texas),” he said. “Then the June number showed 7 million planted in Texas.” Growers actually harvested 3.2 million

The reason for that drop was farmers’ response to ongoing, extreme drought. “I know we’ve had some moisture accumulation, but I think most folks are in the mindset of it being what it is: relatively dry, as reflected by http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/. Growers I talked to recently in San Angelo were in that frame of mind,” Robinson said. “I haven’t visited with anybody around Lubbock in a few weeks. Anyway, as always, we will see.

Randall Conner, executive director Southern Rolling Plains Cotton Growers Association, Inc., said his area missed the recent rains that aided other areas. Consequently, the wheat crop remains in jeopardy.

“The higher temperatures and lack of rain is beginning to take a toll on wheat,” Connor said.

“Cotton markets are improving some, so that is a plus. If some of the wheat is taken out and lack of moisture discourages grain sorghum, then we may be back to more cotton acres. At this point, everything seems to be still up in the air.”

rsmith@farmpress.com

 

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