What is in this article?:
- North Carolina growers stunned by bullish cotton report
- Cotton acreage down
- Leans to the left
• When bearish news hits a bearish market and nothing happens, think bullish thoughts.
SUFFOLK, VA.,-based economist Dennis Gartman says he is bullish on cotton and bearish on corn right now.
Cotton acreage down
By comparison, cotton acreage will be down across the Cotton Belt for a second consecutive year. In North Carolina, for example, cotton acreage will be down by 50 percent from 2011 to 2013.
China has the world’s largest supply of cotton, estimated at 46 million bales, to supply the country’s booming textile industry.
“When the Chinese released some of these reserve bales, the price of cotton should have gone down — it didn’t. Subsequent releases of Chinese cotton likewise failed to impact cotton prices — good or bad, that’s important,” Gartman says.
“When bearish news hits a bearish market and nothing happens, think bullish thoughts. That’s where I am with cotton right now,” he explains.
China is the dominant influencing factor in world cotton production, but they cannot afford to stifle growth in cotton production because that stifles growth in their own textile industry and they have an emerging economic giant in India that would like nothing better than to knock the Chinese textile industry out of its current leadership role.
Gartman says his other bullish crop is wheat.
Recent wheat crops in the U.S. and worldwide have been sub-par because of weather related issues.
Less than expected production in the U.S. and other major wheat producing countries the past two seasons, and continued demand have kept wheat supplies at or near record levels.
The impact of the ongoing drought in the Midwest will have a big influence on wheat prices, he says.
“The major wheat producing states in the U.S. are still suffering from the lingering effects of the record 2012 drought. The wheat crop needs rain, and it’s not getting it. This year’s crop needs a snow cover, and it’s not getting it. All these factors are lining up for a short supply and a big demand,” Gartman says.
“Soybeans are tough for me to get a handle on,” Gartman adds. My position on beans changes daily, sometimes hourly, because the cards keep changing and it’s tough to keep up on a global basis with what’s going on with the crop.
“Brazil is such a big player in soybeans and Argentina is fast approaching that level. The financial and political happenings in Brazil in particular are difficult to read. They are rapidly boosting production and productivity, making supply and demand issues hard to figure.
“The recently ousted leader in Brazil (Luiz Inacio Lula) was often hard to understand and hard to deal with on agricultural issues, but at least you knew where you stood with him.