What is in this article?:
- Experts projecting a 15.8 million bale U.S. cotton crop
- Tentative Texas estimate
• Growers in the Southwest states of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas could harvest as much as 5.8 million bales of cotton, according to Carl Anderson, Texas A&M Extension professor emeritus.
• Cotton economist O.A. Cleveland projects 4.3 million bales and 3.8 million bales of cotton production in the Southeast and Mid-South, respectively.
• Cotton analyst Jarral Neeper projects near record to record yields for California, thanks to nearly ideal cotton-producing weather.
PARTICIPATING IN the 2012 Cotton Roundtable in July, are, from left, Joe Nicosia, CEO of Allenberg Cotton Co.; Joe O’Neill, former president and CEO of the New York Board of Trade (now the Intercontinental Exchange); Pat McClatchy, executive director of the Ag Market Network; Mike Stevens, cotton analyst; Carl Anderson, Extension specialist emeritus, Texas A&M University; Ben Jackson, president and CEO, Intercontinental Exchange; Jarral Neeper, president of Calcot; and O.A. Cleveland, professor emeritus, Mississippi State University.
Tentative Texas estimate
Anderson’s production estimate for Texas is a tentative 5.3 million bales. “The crop for the next two months needs to be watched closely for changes in growing conditions.”
Oklahoma growers could produce around 436,000 bales on 330,000 acres. The crop is mostly in fair to good condition.
Kansas growers planted 55,000 acres that are in fair to good condition and may produce 64,000 bales. Growers in the Southwest states of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas might harvest around 5.8 million bales, according to Anderson.
Southeast and Mid-South
The Southeast planted about 2.7 million acres to cotton this season, down about 700,000 acres from the previous year. The crop got off to a very good start, according to O.A. Cleveland, professor emeritus, Mississippi State University. “It slowed a bit when it got a little dry, but it’s still ahead of normal.”
Cleveland says the crop is “a little better than average crop, which means the yield will be close to 800 pounds. We’re looking at about 4.3 million bales coming out of the Southeast.”
Based on USDA numbers, the Mid-South is down only 300,000 acres from last year, having planted 2.1 million acres, “which many think is between 150,000 acres and 200,000 acres too high.”
The Mid-South crop “got off to a good start, probably the fastest start ever,” Cleveland said. Like in the Southeast, the crop slowed down on dry weather, “but has come back. It’s above average. We’ve had excellent moisture during July.”
Cleveland expects Mid-South yields of a little better than average “maybe as high as 900 pounds, which would produce about 3.8 million bales of cotton. I’m sticking with that number even though I think that acreage is going to come down.”
Jarral Neeper, president of Calcot, is projecting record to near-record yields for California this season, noting that the outlook for the Far West cotton crop at this time has been described as “scary good.”
“We didn’t off to the best start. We had some trouble getting the crop in the ground. But we’ve had unbelievable weather. We haven’t had the extreme heat, and we’ve had nice cool nights.”
Neeper projects California yields at a record 1,660 pounds for upland cotton and 1,577 pounds for Pima, which would produce a crop of 1.2 million bales – 512,000 bales of upland and 703,000 bales of Pima.
Neeper estimates a yield of 1,598 pounds per acre for Arizona upland, producing a crop of 659,000 bales. Pima production will fall on reduced acres, Neeper noted. “Arizona will produce only 8,000 bales of Pima, for a total of 667,000 bales.”
That brings total production in the Far West to 1.9 million bales “which is probably on the high side,” Neeper said.
(In other recent news, Chinese cotton reserves are supposedly helping support market prices. You can read that article by clicking here. On the other hand, record cotton carryover is hampering price upturns. That information can be found here).