One chance. One chance with thousands and thousands of dollars on the line.

Cotton farmers have one opportunity, before they have any clue of what kind of season they are likely to have—rainy, dry, colder than usual or hot as blazes — one shot at picking the right variety to mesh with whatever conditions come along during the long growing season.

David Drake, Texas AgriLife Extension agronomist at San Angelo, compared the decision-making process a cotton farmer goes through early in the year to a professional baseball manager who has 162 chances from April into October to switch things around and put the best team on the field.

A coach for professional basketball or hockey has 80 opportunities to change his mind.

College basketball skippers have 30 opportunities; the NFL gets 16 — asssuming they don’t go to the playoffs — and NCAA football has 12 chances, unless they are fortunate enough to get into one of the 30 or so post-season bowl games.

And even rock, paper scissors players usually go two out of three, Drake said.

But a cotton farmer has to decide, sometimes as early as January, what varieties are most likely to give him the best chance of making a decent yield and a profit.

“A farmer has to make his pick early and be prepared for conditions in July and August, Drake said during the recent Concho Valley Cotton Conference in San Angelo.

“It’s an important decision,” Drake said.

And farmers have a list of reasons why they choose one variety over another — some reasons are better than others. Peer pressure may play a role. Tradition, planting what he’s planted for years, may be a factor.

Also weighing in on the decision-making process is the relationship a farmer has with his seed dealer, favorable terms available from one company, performance — yield and quality — agronomic or system fits, and traits.

A few other issues could affect variety choices as well.

But Drake says diversity should be part of the process. “Select and plant two or three different varieties. At a minimum, plant two that are familiar and maybe plant one new one to see how it performs.