The U.S. cotton crop just keeps getting bigger. In USDA’s July 9 Crop Production Report and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, the agency raised its estimate of U.S. cotton production to 18.3 million bales, a 10 percent increase over June’s estimates, due to higher planted area and projections for good yields, especially in Texas. Acreage estimates were based on USDA’s June 30 Acreage Report.
A lower projected abandonment rate for cotton and higher expected average yield reflect favorable July crop conditions in the Southwest, USDA reported.
Domestic mill use was raised marginally for cotton on stronger recent activity.
Exports were raised sharply due to the projected larger available supply and strong foreign demand. While ending stocks of 3.5 million bales are 700,000 bales above last month, the stocks-to-use ratio of 20 percent remains relatively tight. The projected range for the marketing-year average price received by producers is unchanged at 60 to 74 cents per pound.
Meanwhile, the world cotton stocks-to-use ratio is the smallest since 1994-95.
U.S. corn production was lowered 125 million bushels, to 13.24 billion bushels this month, leaving supplies down 250 million bushels. Exports for 2010-11 are projected 50 million bushels lower as tighter domestic supplies, strong demand from ethanol production, and rising prices reduce the export competitiveness of U.S. corn.
Ending stocks for 2010-11 are projected down 200 million bushels at 1.373 billion bushels, 105 million below the 2009-10 projection. Ending stocks for old crop U.S. corn are projected 125 million bushels lower reflecting higher use in 2009-10.
U.S. soybean production is projected at 3.345 billion bushels, up 35 million from last month due to increased harvested area, estimated at a record 78 million acres. Soybean yield is projected at 42.9 bushels per acre. Ending stocks remain at 360 million bushels.
Global soybean production is projected at a record 251.3 million tons, up 1.4 million due mostly to higher production in the United States.
Total U.S. wheat production is forecast 149 million bushels higher than last month, to 2.216 billion bushels on higher forecast area and a forecast record yield of 45.9 bushels per acre. Winter wheat production is up 23 million bushels from the previous month.